Confidence is calibrated to the engine’s real win rate.
The HOLD signal for Polkadot is driven by a combination of factors, including the recent momentum of -2.4%, which indicates a slight decline, and the volume/turnover of 6.0% of the market capitalization traded in the last 24 hours, which is a relatively moderate level of activity. The momentum and volume/turnover factors suggest that the market is not strongly bearish, but rather consolidating, which supports the HOLD signal. The volatility, with an ATR of 0.69% per bar, sets a stop at 2.4% and a target at 2.5R, providing a framework for managing risk in the trade, and the overall analysis suggests that the current price action does not warrant a strong buy or sell signal, resulting in a HOLD recommendation at 45% confidence.
Every input behind the call, shown in the open.
Trend filter (EMA100)
price above EMA100 — longs allowed
RSI (14)
RSI 49 — neutral
MACD (12,26,9)
bearish crossover
MA Trend (9/21)
below trend (downtrend)
EMA Cross (9/15)
EMA9 below EMA15 (downtrend)
Bollinger (20,2σ)
lower half
How these combine into a signal is documented on the methodology page — trend indicators outvote oscillators, and thin liquidity is never rated.
Every rated signal the engine issued on Polkadot, followed to its real outcome — not a backtest, and not cherry-picked.
19
Signals closed
37%
Win rate
-1.8R
Net result
| Signal | Outcome | Result | Opened | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL | Stopped | -1.0R | Jul 9 | Jul 10 |
| SELL | Expired | +0.3R | Jul 9 | Jul 9 |
| SELL | Expired | +0.0R | Jul 9 | Jul 9 |
| SELL | Expired | +1.1R | Jul 7 | Jul 9 |
| SELL | Expired | -0.2R | Jul 7 | Jul 7 |
| SELL | Expired | +0.1R | Jul 7 | Jul 7 |
| SELL | Expired | -0.3R | Jul 7 | Jul 7 |
| BUY | Stopped | -1.0R | Jul 6 | Jul 7 |
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